Today's scan covered land and infill lots across Wake, Orange, Chatham, Harnett, and Johnston counties, with priority given to sewer-available parcels in the $250-$400+/SF build markets. The Chapel Hill/Carrboro market — the best Triangle build market at $316-$379/SF — showed very limited active inventory; the strongest parcel previously tracked (1511 Tallyho Trail, 24 acres, $2.55M, all public utilities, MLS 10047640) went off market in February 2025 after 97 days. Apex land at $1.3-$2M doesn't pencil at current $240-$244/SF comps. Wake Forest ($189-$197/SF median) and Hillsborough single-lot infill PASS at current land prices. One currently active deal in Holly Springs — a fresh August 2026 listing at $140k for 1 acre with two manufactured homes to demo — clears the GOOD bar IF public sewer is confirmed on Commission Drive and R-8SF zoning allows a 3-way lot split. Two quick phone calls gate this one; see VERIFY details below.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5161 Commission Dr, Holly Springs, NC 27540 · Buy/demo 2 manufactured homes → subdivide 1 ac into 3 lots → build 3 new SFH (Strategy C/B) $1M–$5M project | $140,000 | +$495,537 | 20.8% | $158,226 | GOOD |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
Holly Springs: median all-home sold $/SF $233-$238 (Aug 2026, Blue Orchid/Redfin); new-construction median sale price $804,508 from 48 closings (May 2026, major builders including Lennar, Taylor Morrison, Davidson Homes). Model uses $305/SF ARV for 2,600 SF quality new homes — conservative vs. the implied $309/SF from the $804k median. Apex: median sold $/SF $240-$244 (down 2.4% YoY per Redfin/Blue Orchid Aug 2026). Hillsborough: avg sold $/SF $262 (up from $257 in Aug 2025). Wake Forest: median sold $/SF $189 (down 7.4% per Redfin Jul 2026) — too thin for the build model at current land prices. Chapel Hill: median sold $/SF $316 (up 11.3% YoY per Redfin 2026), new construction avg $379/SF — best market in the region but current active land is scarce.
The Triangle build market remains strongest in Chapel Hill ($316-$379/SF) and Holly Springs ($233-$310/SF new construction), but land that pencils at 20%+ investor margin is scarce. The 5161 Commission Dr listing is a fresh entry ($140k, Aug 13 2026, still active) priced at or slightly below the Holly Springs land average of $162k/acre. The key value driver is converting one lot into three under R-8SF zoning: each new home built at $305/SF ARV comfortably tops the $804k new-construction median in the market. Recommended next step TODAY: (1) Call Holly Springs Utilities 919-577-3150 — ask whether 5161 Commission Dr is in the public sewer service area. (2) Call Holly Springs Zoning 919-557-3908 — confirm R-8SF zoning and ask whether a 3-lot subdivision is feasible on a 1-acre parcel with Commission Dr frontage. If both confirm: make offer at $140k (11% below the $158,226 MAO for the 3-lot/20% margin scenario).