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Deal Scout · Opportunity #1
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GOOD · 18.6% (base $480K/unit) → 20.1% at $490K/unit MARGIN $1M–$5M project

#1 · 5202 Garrett Rd (Lots 62–64), Durham, NC 27707

1.11 acres · 6 townhomes approved · MLS 10176692 · SW Durham near Duke/UNC
List price$400,000
Acreage1.11 acres (48,352 SF)
MLS10176692
ZoningCity of Durham residential — 6 townhomes fully approved
UtilitiesPublic water & sewer (City of Durham)
StrategyBuild 6 new-construction townhomes on approved plan; sell individually
Out-of-pocket cash$633,460 (equity + closings + carry + listing prep)
Financed$1,514,363 construction loan (~75% of project)
Modeled6 × 1,500 SF builder-grade townhomes @ $480K/unit ($320/SF conservative)
Project cost
$2.14M
Gross revenue
$2,880,000
Net profit
+$535,578
Margin
18.6% (base $480K/unit) → 20.1% at $490K/unit
Max offer (20%)
$363,000 at $480K ARV · $444,000 at $500K ARV
Pro Forma
LineAmount
Gross revenue — 6 units × $480K (Garrett area comps)$2,880,000
Land acquisition + closing (~2%)($408,000)
Construction — builder cost (9,000 SF × $111 builder grade)($999,000)
Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%)($249,750)
Site development / infrastructure (6 lots × $35K cost, incl. 20% margin)($262,500)
Contingency (10% of construction, AT COST — typically returned if unused)($99,900)
Construction loan closing + carry (1.5% closing + 10% APR, 16 mo)($123,672)
Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket($201,600)
NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR~$535,578 · 18.6% margin · 84.5% cash-on-cash

ARV support: Garrett area Durham median home $625,000 / avg $638,571 (May 2025); Southpoint townhomes $340–615K median $449K; new construction near Duke $429/SF (1012 Manor Way, $1.15M / 2,682 SF, 2025). Modeling $480K/unit ($320/SF) is conservative for new construction in the Garrett neighborhood. At $490K/unit the investor clears 20.1% margin. MAO $363K at $480K ARV; $444K at $500K ARV — current $400K ask sits between, making ARV verification the single most important gate before offer.

Diligence Gates
GO: Permits fully approved by City of Durham; public sewer/water; land basis $67K/door below typical Durham approved-site market; Garrett area median $625K validates ARV; fully cleared MLS listing 10176692 active. VERIFY: Pull approved site plan from seller; confirm no outstanding permit conditions; run Durham County GIS for setbacks/flood zone; title search; get 3 recent new-construction comps from local agent for ZIP 27707 to validate $480K+ unit price; confirm public sewer service point location. STOP: Environmental contamination; outstanding permit conditions delaying CO; new-construction comps in ZIP 27707 consistently below $430K (margin becomes negative).
Verdict

Strong, low-risk build opportunity. The full entitlement is done — Home On executes the build, the investor takes the profit. At $480K/unit (conservative $320/SF) the investor nets +$535,578 (18.6% margin, 84.5% CoC). Bumping even $10K/unit to $490K pushes margin to 20.1%. With $400K land basis, the MAO at base ARV is $363K — negotiate toward $375–385K if possible. At $500K/unit (achievable given $625K neighborhood median) the investor nets +$647,178 (21.6% margin, 102% CoC). Recommend: visit site, request site plan, pull 3 recent new-construction comps in 27707 before offer.

Deal Scout · 2026-09-24 Home On LLC · NC GC L-103184Confidential — Home On LLC