| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — entitled 18-lot assemblage sale (8.65 ac, RS20 + ADU-documented) | $820,000 |
| Land acquisition (8.65 ac, 3 parcels) + closing (~2%) | ($610,980) |
| Construction — builder cost (N/A — entitlement/lot sale) | $0 |
| Home On builder margin (N/A) | $0 |
| Site development / infrastructure (buyer installs post-purchase) | $0 |
| Entitlement soft costs — survey, plat engineering, legal, Durham county fees (AT COST) | ($45,000) |
| Contingency (10% of soft costs, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | ($4,500) |
| Carry (10% APR on ~$660k avg, 12 months; no construction loan) | ($65,998) |
| Selling costs (~3% — paid at sale closing) | ($24,600) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR — ENTITLEMENT/LOT-ASSEMBLY PLAY | ~$68,922 · 8% margin · 9.5% cash-on-cash · 12 months | NOTE: asking $599k is $93k above MAO ($506k) for 20% investor margin threshold |
NE Durham January 2026 median home price: $305,000 (Redfin Northeast Durham). Entitlement sale modeled at $820,000 for 18-lot RS20 assemblage with ADU rights and public utilities at ROW (~$45,556/lot of raw entitled land; comparable Durham County development lots trade $45–75k/lot per LandWatch). Nearby comparable listing: 820–832 Old Oxford Rd (MLS 10162200) listed at $600,000 for 2 ac / 8 already-subdivided lots = $75,000/lot (listed March 2026, still active Sept 2026 — suggesting market may be softer than $75k/lot). Build-to-sell NE Durham: 1,400 SF home at $305k ARV produces negative investor margin at current land+build costs — see verdict. MAO $506,000 (for 20% entitlement margin); asking $599k is 18% above MAO threshold.
Real, confirmed listing with excellent utility infrastructure — public sewer + water in the Hebron Rd ROW makes this shovel-ready for the right buyer. The challenge is the NE Durham market: median homes at $305k make build-to-sell margins negative (modeling shows -$432k net for 18 standard 1,400 SF homes at market price). The entitlement/lot-sale play generates ~$69k net (8% margin, 9.5% CoC) — positive but thin, and the nearby 820-832 Old Oxford Rd listing ($75k/lot, active since March 2026) suggests lot demand is soft here. MAO for 20% investor margin = $506,000; asking $599,000 is $93k above that threshold. Best case for a patient buyer: negotiate to $490–510k, plat 18 lots with ADU rights documented, and market to a volume homebuilder willing to run a rental-focused ADU product (36 units = ~$572k/yr gross rent at $1,700 primary + $950 ADU per lot). Grade: MARGINAL — include in report for awareness; do not pursue at $599k asking without negotiation.