| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — lot sale to builder (12 entitled townhome lots @ $95,000/lot) | $1,140,000 |
| Land acquisition (3.97 ac) + closing (~2%) | ($510,000) |
| Construction — builder cost (N/A — entitlement sale; buyer builds) | $0 |
| Home On builder margin (N/A — buyer builds) | $0 |
| Site development / infrastructure (buyer's cost post-sale) | $0 |
| Entitlement soft costs — survey, plat engineer, rezoning attorney, planning fees (AT COST, no margin) | ($40,000) |
| Contingency (10% of soft costs, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | ($4,000) |
| Carry (10% APR on ~$550k avg invested, 12 months; no construction loan) | ($55,000) |
| Selling costs (~3% to land broker — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket) | ($34,200) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR — ENTITLEMENT PLAY | ~$496,800 · 44% margin · 82% cash-on-cash · 12–18 months | BUILD ALT (12 townhomes @ $255/SF): ~$617,003 · 11% margin · 45% CoC |
ENTITLEMENT: $95,000/lot (12 lots) = $1,140,000 total. Comp support: Holly Springs new construction listings median $873k (Raleigh Realty, 53 listings); Twelve Oaks median $735k (March 2026); median $/SF $238 (Redfin March 2026, +2.6% YoY). Builder lot pricing: if townhome ARV = $459k ($255/SF × 1,800 SF) and builder targets 20% margin with $139/SF all-in build cost, max lot = $459k − $250,200 build − $91,800 margin − $15k closing = $102,000; $95k/lot is conservative. BUILD ALT ARV: 12 × 1,800 SF × $255 = $5,508,000. MAO (entitlement, 20% margin): $763,000 — asking $500,000 gives $263,000 cushion. MAO (build, 20% margin): ~$25,000 — build economics require near-free land for 20% investor margin.
Strong entitlement opportunity in one of Wake County's hottest suburban markets. The parcel is priced as RR agricultural land ($126k/ac) despite the town's own plan calling for Mixed Residential density at this location — and the 300-unit Peterson Station development right across Sunset Lake Rd removes all doubt about the town's appetite for density here. Primary play: pay $500k, spend ~$40k on entitlement work, rezone from RR to allow 12 townhome lots, and resell at $95k/lot = $1,140,000 → profit ~$497k (44% margin, 82% CoC). If rezoning fails and only RR density (3–4 lots) is achievable, exit via 3 lots at $90k each = $270k — a $240k loss from the $510k basis; this is the downside scenario and the reason for the GOOD (not GREAT) grade. Build alternative (12 × 1,800 SF townhomes at $255/SF): ~$617k profit, 11% margin, 45% CoC — viable if investor wants to build, but the entitlement-and-sell path is faster and less capital-intensive. Home On should schedule a pre-application meeting with Holly Springs Planning immediately; if that meeting confirms receptiveness, this deal clears GREAT. Move quickly.