| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — sale price (4,000 SF × $400/SF conservative comp) | $1,600,000 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2%) | ($305,796) |
| Construction — builder cost (4,000 SF × $125 mid-range finishes) | ($500,000) |
| Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%) | ($125,000) |
| Site development / infrastructure — well + septic (incl. 20% margin) | ($68,750) |
| Contingency (10% of construction, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | ($62,500) |
| Construction loan closing + carry (10% APR on draws, 12-mo build) | ($56,338) |
| Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket | ($112,000) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR | ~$369,615 · 23.1% margin · 147% cash-on-cash |
ARV support: Gallant Reserve community avg $446/SF per MLS; one active built comp at 586 Poythress Rd (MLS 10133674) listed $1,895,000 for 4,251 SF = $446/SF; modeled at $400/SF (10% haircut). Broader Chapel Hill median sold $316/SF (Redfin, 3-mo thru Jul 2026). MAO $346,000 — ask $299,800 is 13% below MAO; solid cushion at $400/SF.
GOOD. At $400/SF — supported by the one active community comp listing at $446/SF — the investor nets $369,615 (23.1% margin, 147% cash-on-cash) after all costs including Home On's 20% intro margin. Out-of-pocket cash is $251,637 against a $1.6M ARV. The last-lot scarcity is real: once this sells, Gallant Reserve closes. Downside scenario at $360/SF: net ~$220K, 15% margin (MARGINAL). Upside at community asking $446/SF: net ~$531K, 30%+ margin (GREAT). Recommend Chatham County CAMA pull + site visit this week. MAO $346,000 gives room to negotiate from $299,800 if needed.