Triangle Land — 2 Opportunities

Sept 28 2026 scan: distressed 37-ac entitlement play in outer Wake + premium Holly Springs build-own lot

Scan date

2026-09-28

Screened

~50

Cleared

2 of ~50

Build cost

$111/SF

This run screened approximately 50 active land listings across Wake Forest, Rolesville, Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay-Varina, and Chapel Hill. Two properties cleared the bar. The lead deal — 37+ acres with confirmed public sewer at only $7,428/acre in outer Wake County — is an entitlement play with strong upside conditioned entirely on floodplain extent. The second is a premium ready-to-build lot in a supply-constrained Holly Springs corridor that works for a high-end build-own buyer but not for a standard investor flip. No client-requested analyses this run (request queue empty).

Ranked Opportunities

#	Property · Strategy & project cost	List	Net	Margin	Max Offer	Grade
1	4505 Mitchell Mill Rd (Watkins Pond), Wake Forest, NC 27587 · Entitlement/develop — buy 37-ac distressed parcel below base-case MAO, verify buildable acreage via wetland/FEMA study, plat as residential subdivision leveraging confirmed public sewer, sell entitled lots to homebuilders $250K–$500K project	$275,000	+$404,853 (base case: 12 lots × $70k; see conservative case in verdict)	48%	$492,495 (base: 12 lots × $70k) \| $251,145 (conservative: 8 lots × $60k)	GOOD
2	936 W Holly Springs Rd, Holly Springs, NC 27540 · Build-own: rare 1.47-ac lot with public sewer/water/electric, no HOA, in Holly Springs custom-home corridor. Works for an end-user building 4,000+ SF; does NOT pencil as investor flip at current list price. $1M–$5M project	$550,000	+$52,979 build-own equity (4,000 SF × $360/SF ARV); -$47,821 investor flip (after 7% selling costs)	3.7% build-own equity; negative investor flip	$187,000 (investor flip) \| ~$552,000 (build-own break-even at 4,000 SF / $340–360/SF)	MARGINAL

Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.

Market Comps Behind the ARVs

Sold comps pulled from published brokerage and market reports. Holly Springs: 113 Dunton St (2,817 SF, built 2025) sold $875,000 = $310/SF; Holly Springs Aug 2026 median sold $/SF $233–$238 (blueorchidrealty.com market update); new construction listing median $873,000 (Raleigh Realty). Apex: 2584 Silas Peak Ln (6,593 SF, built 2025) sold $2,400,000 = $364/SF; South Wake (Apex + Holly Springs + Fuquay-Varina) combined median $535,000 across 262 sales, May 2026 (hollyspringsupdate.com). Wake Forest: median sold $467,000, $191/SF (Nov 2025, Redfin); median listing $517,000, $197/SF (Jul 2026). Wake County median: $465,000. Wake Forest/Rolesville entitled residential lots estimated $60,000–$75,000 each with public sewer, based on active listings and market context — no direct MLS lot-sale comp found; verify with broker before underwriting.

What Ties the Winners Together

The Mitchell Mill Road assemblage is the week's headline: 37 acres with confirmed public sewer in Wake County at $7,428/acre, priced well below the base-case MAO of $492,000. The entire thesis rests on how much of the property is buildable — the listing flags flood plains and wildlife habitat, which could mean anything from 10% to 60%+ of the acreage. A $5,000–$8,000 wetland/FEMA study before offer close turns this from speculation into a highly asymmetric bet. Do that study before anything else. The Holly Springs lot is correctly priced for a luxury build-own buyer and worth referring to anyone wanting to build a 4,000 SF+ custom home in one of Wake County's best-performing new-construction sub-markets.

Deal Scout · 2026-09-28 Home On LLC · NC GC L-103184Confidential — Home On LLC