No client-requested analyses this run. Scanned Wake Forest, Holly Springs, Apex/Cary, North Hills Raleigh, Durham, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Pittsboro, Fuquay-Varina, Garner, and Willow Springs. One GOOD deal: 8400 Henderson Rd Apex, a shovel-ready 15-lot site in Town of Cary jurisdiction near the forthcoming Veridea mixed-use mega-development, with municipal water/sewer and custom-home pricing support of $344-357/SF confirmed in adjacent Colby Chase. One MARGINAL deal: a Durham infill package of 11 city lots near northeast Durham employment centers, viable at $310+/SF. Two North Hills teardown/infill lots graded PASS as investor plays but highlighted for build-own buyers. Notable miss: 104 Hill St Carrboro (rare walkable lot, $115k, public sewer) went under contract 09/21/2026 within 4 days of listing.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8400 Henderson Rd, Apex, NC 27539 · Build 15 custom homes on Town-of-Cary 15-lot subdivision site; entitlement sell-lot upside $5M–$10M project | $2,000,000 | +$2,183,007 | 17.1% margin · 78.3% cash-on-cash (base $340/SF); 21.3% · 103% CoC at $360/SF | $1,640,203 | GOOD |
| 2 | 613 Craven St / 608 Craven St / 702 Martin St, Durham, NC 27704 · Build 11 infill homes on platted city lots in northeast Durham employment corridor $1M–$5M project | $750,000 | +$582,217 | 11.6% margin · 51.9% CoC (base $285/SF); 18.2% at $310/SF; 21.6% at $325/SF | $337,272 | MARGINAL |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4900 N Hills Dr, Raleigh, NC 27612 · Build-own: custom North Hills home below buy-finished cost; PASS as build-invest flip $500K–$1M project | $499,000 | +$31,569 | 2.9% margin · 12.2% CoC as build-invest — PASS; build-own saves $4k-$286k vs. buying finished | $371,657 | PASS |
| 4 | 5605 N Hills Dr, Raleigh, NC 27612 · Teardown + new construction — PASS as investment, build-own option only $1M–$5M project | $575,000 | -$76,261 | -7.0% (loss) build-invest; build-own all-in ~$1.09M in North Hills | $341,940 | PASS |
These were taken through a full pro forma and failed. They are kept so the reasoning is auditable, and so the same parcel is not re-worked next week.
Apex/Cary custom homes: Colby Chase Dr (27539) active 2026 listings at $344/SF (3,925 SF/$1,349,000) and $357/SF (3,353 SF/$1,196,500) — same Apex/Cary corridor as Henderson Rd. Market-wide Apex median sold: $241-264/SF (all builders). North Hills Raleigh: 6512 Burnette Flower Way (27612) $383/SF new construction; 1005 Temple St (27609) $486/SF; neighborhood active median ~$345/SF. Durham infill new construction: 104 Driver St $274/SF, 1506 N Hyde Park Ave $383/SF, 116 Chestnut St $334/SF; range $207-383/SF depending on sub-neighborhood. All comps from 2025-2026 MLS and active listing data.
Henderson Rd Apex is the only actionable deal this cycle with premium economics: Town of Cary utilities, near Veridea (2,700-acre $2.7B mixed-use development 2 miles away), 15-lot site with clear subdivision path, and a comparables corridor that supports $340-360/SF for custom homes. At $360/SF the MAO exceeds the ask — pay full price and still clear 21% margin. Durham needs a pricing thesis above market average to pencil; investigate sub-neighborhood and confirm buyer demand at $310+/SF before proceeding. Recommended next step: tour Henderson Rd with a civil engineer to confirm lot layout, Town of Cary utility tap fees, and any impervious-cover or buffer constraints; price sensitivity analysis confirms the deal works at full ask if premium homes can be sustained.