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Triangle Land — 2 Opportunities

Oct 1 2026 · ~40 listings screened · 1 GOOD subdivision play (Holly Springs MXR), 1 MARGINAL ITB infill (Raleigh)
Scan date
2026-10-01
Screened
~40
Cleared
2 of ~40
Build cost
$111/SF

No pending client requests this run. Screened roughly 40 active land listings across Wake, Orange, and Chatham counties — focusing on public-sewer parcels in growth markets priced above $250/SF for new construction. Two listings cleared threshold: a 12.43-acre MXR-zoned parcel at 4830 Optimist Farm Road in Holly Springs (public sewer, I-540 corridor, $600K ask) and a small downtown Raleigh infill lot at 203 Heck St with 276 days on market. The Holly Springs parcel is the headline — at $48K/acre in a zone allowing large-scale apartment and townhome development with public utilities confirmed, the per-lot land cost at 40 townhome units is only $15K, well below market for an entitled site. The ITB Raleigh lot is a small-capital play worth a negotiating call given the extended DOM.

Ranked Opportunities
#Property · Strategy & project cost ListNetMarginMax OfferGrade
1 4830 Optimist Farm Road, Holly Springs, NC 27540 · Buy 12.43-ac MXR parcel, entitle 40 townhome lots (Strategy D paper win) or build 40 townhomes with Home On (Strategy B) $10M–$15M project $600,000 +$3,296,469 18.4% $341,000 at $280/SF base — $600K ask achieves GREAT at $300/SF comps GOOD
2 203 Heck Street, Raleigh, NC 27601 · Buy downtown Raleigh infill lot, build 2,400 SF new construction ITB (Strategy B); negotiate to ~$256K MAO $500K–$1M project $297,000 +$171,020 16.1% $256,000 MARGINAL

Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.

Market Comps Behind the ARVs

Holly Springs townhome comps: Toll Brothers 120 Anchor Beam Ct HS (active listing, new construction) $757,000 / 2,015 SF = $375/SF; 341 Old Ride Dr HS (SOLD Feb 2025) $450,000 / 2,364 SF = $190/SF; 201 Commons Dr HS (active, existing product) $325,000 / 1,309 SF = $248/SF. Base case modeled at $280/SF for builder-grade new townhome — a conservative split between existing resale and the Toll Brothers premium. REALTOR MLS pull for recent closed new-construction townhome comps required before offer. ITB Raleigh infill comp: 720 Oakwood Ave Unit 102 (active new construction, same 27601 zip) listed $975,000 / 2,195 SF = $444/SF — active listing, not yet a closed comp; agent pull needed for closed 2026 sales.

What Ties the Winners Together

The market is showing cracks that favor buyers: 36% of Raleigh-area listings took a price cut as of September 2026 (PicksByProperty), and median DOM has stretched from 16 to 28 days over the past quarter. Holly Springs MXR parcels with confirmed public sewer remain rare and competitively priced on a per-entitled-unit basis. The 4830 Optimist Farm Road opportunity leads as an entitlement play (buy, get Town approval, sell to regional builder) or a direct 40-unit townhome build; both paths support investor returns in the GOOD-to-GREAT range depending on exit comp. Recommended next step: call the Seagate listing agent, confirm current ask and public-sewer capacity with Holly Springs planning, and order a preliminary wetland delineation for the creek corridor before tying up the contract.

Deal Scout · 2026-10-01 Home On LLC · NC GC L-103184Confidential — Home On LLC