| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — 60 entitled lots × $90,000/lot (conservative; $100-120k range by 2027) | $5,400,000 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2%) | ($3,060,000) |
| Entitlement costs — survey, engineering, preliminary plat, legal (at cost, no margin) | ($250,000) |
| Construction — N/A (entitlement sale; no build in this path) | $0 |
| Home On builder margin — N/A for entitlement-only path | $0 |
| Site development / infrastructure — N/A for entitlement-only path | $0 |
| Contingency — N/A for entitlement-only path | $0 |
| Land loan closing + carry (70% LTV, 10% APR, 18 months) | ($346,500) |
| Selling costs (~3.5% for land sale) — paid at closing, not out-of-pocket | ($189,000) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR | ~$1,554,500 · 28.8% margin · ~100% cash-on-cash (18 months) |
Entitled lot comps: Chatham Park area residential land $80-100k/lot; modeled at conservative $90k. With Disney Asteria home sales opening 2027, comparable entitled lots within 1 mile of Chatham Park expected to command $100-120k/lot. BUILD ALT COMPS (40 lots × 2,500 SF): 12 Cabin Creek Pittsboro $334/SF; 267 Parkland Dr $302/SF; 172 Quail Point $304/SF. Modeled at $290/SF (mid-market, below Chatham Park premium). MAO for entitlement path at 20% investor margin: $3,465,000 — asking price of $3,000,000 has +$465,000 cushion. Deal grades GOOD at ask.
Buy the entitlement, not just the land. At $3M for 31.89 public-sewer acres in the path of the East Coast's largest master-planned community, this is a timing play. Disney's Asteria (4,000+ homes) broke ground June 2025 and opens for sales in 2027 — Chatham Park will triple Pittsboro's population and is driving premium pricing ($257-$334/SF on new construction, vs. $208/SF Wake Forest). Entitlement path nets ~$1,554,500 (28.8% margin, ~100% CoC in 18 months) — and MAO of $3,465,000 means the $3M ask has room. Build-out alternative (40 lots × 2,500 SF × $290/SF): $29M revenue, $3.85M net, 13.3% margin, 57% cash-on-cash — MARGINAL on its own, becomes GOOD if lot yield reaches 60+ and Chatham Park premium ($310+/SF) holds. Step 1: call Pittsboro Planning to confirm R-12 density and entitlement path before any offer.