| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — 24 homes × 2,400 SF × $255/SF (above WF median; best case) | $14,688,000 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2%) | ($1,785,000) |
| Construction — builder cost (24 × 2,400 SF × $111 builder grade) | ($6,393,600) |
| Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%) | ($1,598,400) |
| Site development / infrastructure (24 lots × $65k cost, incl. 20% margin) | ($1,950,000) |
| Contingency (10% of construction, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | ($639,360) |
| Soft costs — design/permits/survey (5% of construction, at cost) | ($319,680) |
| Construction loan closing + carry (10% APR, 12-month build, avg half-drawn) | ($618,445) |
| Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket | ($1,028,160) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR | ~$355,355 · 2.4% margin · 9.3% cash-on-cash — PASS (negative at WF median pricing of $208-$240/SF) |
Wake Forest new construction sold comps: 813 Copper Beech Ln sold $422,400/3,514 SF = $120/SF (July 2026); 1505 Copper John Rd $461,065/1,838 SF = $251/SF; 6032 Autumn Dew Dr listed $594,290/2,922 SF = $203/SF. Market median ~$208/SF; upper-quality new construction $220-$251/SF. Model requires $255/SF (above market) just to show 2.4% margin. MAO at 20% investor margin: NEGATIVE at all realistic Wake Forest price points — non-land project costs exceed max allowable cost at any positive land price. Land basis of $72.9k/lot is fair for a DIRECT developer (no separate builder margin), but does not support the investor + Home On fee-builder model in this market.
PASS for the Home On investor model. At $1.75M (24 lots, $72.9k/lot), the land basis is fair for a direct developer but the Home On fee-builder layer means the investor does not achieve positive returns at any realistic Wake Forest new construction pricing ($208-$255/SF). Non-land project costs ($11.4M) exceed what the revenue model can bear even before land. Worth noting: the adjacent 224-unit apartment + 147-townhouse developer may want this land as an acquisition target (sell to them as a land flip). Also possible as a long-hold if Wake Forest pricing appreciates toward $280+/SF over 3-5 years.