| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — 40 entitled lots × $95,000 (platted GR3 near Kinsley, city sewer) | $3,800,000 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2% × $1,550,000) | ($1,581,000) |
| Entitlement costs — survey, civil eng., planning, legal, town fees (at cost, no HO margin) | ($150,000) |
| Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%) | $0 — entitlement play; no construction performed by Home On |
| Site development / infrastructure (incl. 20% margin) | $0 — buyer (builder) installs roads + utilities after purchase |
| Contingency (10% of entitlement costs, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | $0 — embedded in entitlement estimate above |
| Carry — 18-month hold (bridge interest / opportunity cost, at cost) | ($80,000) |
| Selling costs (~4% broker + legal on land sale) — paid at closing, not out-of-pocket | ($152,000) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR (entitlement) | ~$1,837,000 · 48% margin · 101% cash-on-cash over ~18 months |
Entitlement ARV: comparable ready-to-build lots near Wake Forest Downtown sell for $100–$150K (finished) and $75–$100K (entitled, pre-infra). Model uses $95K/entitled lot (conservative), 40 lots from 20.54 acres at GR3 density. Build ARV: Wake Forest new-construction median $216/SF ($709K median price, Redfin Oct 2026); premium infill near downtown estimated $260–$290/SF. At $290/SF × 2,600 SF = $754K/home, per-lot net = $157,381 (20.9% margin, 105% cash-on-cash). MAO for BUILD play: reverse-solved at $290/SF, 40 lots → max land = $1,808,240 (current ask $1,550,000 is $258,240 BELOW build-play MAO — cushion exists). Entitlement MAO: $2,605,882 — ask is $1,055,882 below entitlement MAO.
This is the strongest land opportunity in this scan. At $1.55M for 20.54 GR3-zoned acres adjacent to a 726-unit active master plan with city sewer, the entitlement play is straightforward and the economics are compelling: modeled at +$1,837,000 net (48% margin, 101% cash-on-cash in ~18 months). The build-invest alternative also works at premium pricing: 40 homes at $290/SF × 2,600 SF = $754K/home nets +$157,381/home (20.9% margin, 105% cash-on-cash per lot). The entitlement path requires less capital and faster exit. RECOMMEND: Execute a basic utility and plat feasibility check (2–3 weeks, ~$5K), then make an offer near $1.45–$1.55M contingent on utility confirmation. If sewer is confirmed and civil yields 40+ lots, this is a GREAT deal on the entitlement path.