| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — 60 finished lots × $220,000 (2027+ Chatham Park / Disney-proximity premium) | $13,200,000 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2%) | ($3,060,000) |
| Site development / infrastructure — 60 lots × $65k/lot cost (incl. 20% margin) | ($4,875,000) |
| Soft costs (design / permits / survey — at cost, ~5% of infra scope) | ($195,000) |
| Contingency (10% of infra scope, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | ($390,000) |
| Construction loan closing + carry (10% APR on draws, 2.5-yr infra build) | ($894,600) |
| Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket | ($924,000) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR | ~$2,861,400 · 22% margin · 95% cash-on-cash (2027+ scenario ONLY — at current $150k/lot the deal is a PASS) |
Comp support: Chatham Park new construction 2025–2026: Homes by Dickerson $242–$246/SF; David Weekley Encore $369/SF; townhomes $227–$280/SF. Finished lot values inside Chatham Park currently estimated $100–$150k (limited MLS data). Disney Asteria projected to push corridor lot premiums to $175–$220k+ by 2027–2028. At current $150k/lot × 60 = $9M revenue: MAO is $679k — asking $3M is not supported today. MAO $3,498,000 is only reached at $220k/lot (2027+ scenario). This is a land-hold thesis, not a 12-month flip.
The math does not support $3M at today's Pittsboro lot prices (~$150k/lot; MAO $679k). The thesis is entirely a Disney/Chatham Park forward-value bet: if Disney Asteria drives finished lot values to $220k by 2027–2028, the 60-lot development generates +$2,861,400 (22% margin) and the $3M land price is inside the $3.5M MAO. The confirmed public sewer (rare for Chatham County at this scale) and Pittsboro's stated appetite for infill development are genuine differentiators. Recommended: negotiate land price to $2M–$2.5M (offer with hold clause), or watch and re-evaluate in Q2 2027 once Disney home sales begin and lot comp data is available. Do not buy at $3M without a 3–4 year hold budget.