No client requests pending this run. Scanned active MLS land and lot listings across Wake, Durham, Orange, and Chatham counties — roughly 60 parcels screened. Two investments cleared the bar. The flagship is a rare new-listing infill lot in Durham's Forest Hills neighborhood (premium new construction market; $408–$558/SF comps confirmed); a secondary MARGINAL opportunity in Hillsborough (Orange County) offers a deeply discounted, 132-day motivated-seller play on 4.78 acres with up to 9 old platted lots at a basis of $193,900 — compelling IF Orange County confirms individual lot buildability. A third Pittsboro gated estate lot is included as PASS for context. All numbers are modeled from real listed comps; Home On re-verifies before any offer.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1510 Hermitage Court, Durham, NC 27707 · Buy + build new single-family infill in Forest Hills (premier Durham neighborhood) $1M–$5M project | $425,000 | +$263,255 | 18.5% (clears 20% at $490/SF ARV) | $404,000 | GOOD |
| 2 | 201 Old Pleasant Drive, Hillsborough, NC 27278 · Entitlement / lot-resale play — 9 old platted lots, 4.78 ac, motivated seller (132 days, heavy price drops) Under $250K project | $193,900 | +$88,422 | 26.0% (4-lot conservative scenario) | $214,000 | MARGINAL |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 174 Clear Springs Court, Pittsboro, NC 27312 · Single estate lot in gated community — PASS for investor flip; potential BUY-OWN for estate builder $1M–$5M project | $350,000 | -$52,957 | -4.4% | $63,000 | PASS |
These were taken through a full pro forma and failed. They are kept so the reasoning is auditable, and so the same parcel is not re-worked next week.
Forest Hills Durham new construction comps: 1330 Eldon Circle (new, 2026, Homes by Dickerson) closed $1,345,000 / 2,412 SF = $558/SF; 4 Chantilly Place (new, May 2026) ~$408/SF on 4,538 SF. Target ARV for modeled 3,000 SF build is $475/SF ($1,425,000) — conservative relative to Eldon Circle; deal math clears 20% margin at $490/SF ($1,470,000), also within range. Hillsborough new construction comps: 106 Sherwood Lane (sold 2025) $513,900 / 2,040 SF = $252/SF; 2308 Hardwood Drive (listed 2025) $1,112,800 / 3,376 SF = $330/SF; Mistletoe Hills (2024) $386,000 / 1,853 SF = $208/SF. Market average ~$241/SF. Pittsboro / Chatham Park: NoVi 79 Parkland Dr (built 2025) $379,698 / 1,569 SF = $242/SF; Encore community $332/SF (55+). Target for luxury estate modeled at $300/SF.
The Forest Hills infill is the cleanest near-term opportunity: a rare available lot in one of Durham's most supply-constrained, high-value neighborhoods with confirmed public utilities. At list price the margin comes in at 18.5% (conservative $475/SF ARV) and clears 20% at $490/SF — which is well within proven Forest Hills new construction range. Cash-on-cash of 94%+ is exceptional. MAO is $404K; offering $405–415K is reasonable and likely acceptable. The Hillsborough lot play is speculative but the acquisition basis ($193,900 for 4.78 ac with 9 old platted lots) is extraordinary — if even 4 lots survive Orange County review, the entitlement/lot-resale scenario shows 26% margin and the ask is already below MAO for that scenario. Recommended next step: call Orange County Planning (919-245-2575) to pull the old plat and confirm lot-by-lot buildability before any offer. Fast-track action on Forest Hills: confirm listing status and walk the lot this week — new listings in Forest Hills historically move in 7–14 days.