| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue per home — $340/SF × 2,400 SF (ARV: Holly Springs new construction sold median ~$804k) | $816,000 |
| Land per lot ($500k ÷ 4 lots) + closing (~2%) | ($127,500) |
| Construction — builder cost (2,400 SF × $111 builder grade) | ($266,400) |
| Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%) | ($66,600) |
| Site development + subdivision infrastructure per lot — sewer connection + roads/utilities (incl. 20% margin) | ($81,250) |
| Contingency (10% of construction AT COST — typically returned to investor if unused) | ($26,640) |
| Construction loan closing + carry (10% APR on draws, 12-month build) | ($27,587) |
| Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket | ($57,120) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR (per lot) | ~$162,903 · 20.0% margin · 94.9% cash-on-cash · ×4 lots = $651,612 total |
ARV support: Holly Springs new construction sold median ~$804,508 (May 2026 data, Triangle MLS); active new construction listing median $873k. Model uses conservative $340/SF ($816k for 2,400 SF). At $350/SF ($840k): margin rises to 23.3%. Nearby comparable: 0 Buckhorn Duncan Rd (7.61 acres, R30, Holly Springs, $500k) went PENDING July 2026 — validates buyer demand for this product. MAO $498,904 for 4 lots at $340/SF — ask is essentially AT MAO; negotiate to $475-490k or confirm 5+ lots for improved cushion. Entitlement upside: annexation to Holly Springs + R-15 rezoning could yield 15-18 lots and dramatically improve per-investor economics.
GOOD opportunity at $500,000 for 7.87 acres in Holly Springs ETJ with city sewer at the fence line. Model: 4 lots under RR zoning + sewer connection yields +$162,903/lot (20.0% margin, 94.9% cash-on-cash) at the conservative $340/SF Holly Springs new construction comp — total deal net +$651,612 across 4 homes. Asking price is essentially at MAO ($498,904) at $340/SF — works as-is if lot yield hits 4, with upside as ARV approaches the $873k listing median ($349/SF). Strongest upside is the entitlement play: petition Holly Springs for annexation + R-15 rezoning, which could yield 15-18 lots — transforming this from a 4-home build project into a full subdivision. No HOA, no city taxes (ETJ), and a custom builder (Caruso Homes) already marketing this site as a homesite validates premium buyer demand. Action: verify sewer connection and lot yield before committing capital — those two data points determine whether this is GREAT or PASS.