This run screened approximately 50 land and lot listings across Wake Forest, Apex, Holly Springs, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Fuquay-Varina, Carrboro, and Pittsboro. Most Triangle markets are operating below the $250/SF threshold needed to pencil new construction with Home On's margin structure — Wake Forest ($191/SF median), Fuquay-Varina ($193/SF), Hillsborough ($235/SF), and Apex ($241-$253/SF) all came up short. The winning signal came from Chapel Hill's Greenwood neighborhood ($450-$485/SF for premium new construction) and Holly Springs where the new-construction sold median has crossed $804k. No client-queued properties analyzed this run.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 636 Christopher Rd, Chapel Hill, NC 27514 · Build premium new construction, sell (build-invest) or owner-build (build-own) $1M–$5M project | $375,000 | +$304,024 | 21.1% | $390,100 | GREAT |
| 2 | 0 Old Airport Rd Lot 2, Holly Springs, NC 27540 · 3-4 lot rural subdivision + build new; entitlement upside via Holly Springs annexation $500K–$1M project | $500,000 | +$162,903 | 20.0% | $498,904 | GOOD |
| 3 | 121 Justice St, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 · Infill new construction — best as build-own or duplex play; thin margins for standard build-invest $500K–$1M project | $319,500 | +$91,865 | 10.4% | $285,867 | MARGINAL |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
Chapel Hill 27514 (Greenwood): 753 Old Mill Road — same Greenwood neighborhood, 4,018 SF 2024-rebuilt home, actively listed at $1,950,000 ($485/SF). This is a listing comp, not yet sold; used conservatively at $450/SF for Deal 1 analysis. Holly Springs: Triangle MLS new construction sold median ~$804,508 (May 2026 data), active listing median $873k — implying $335-$349/SF for a typical 2,400-2,500 SF new build. Deal 2 modeled at conservative $340/SF ($816k per 2,400 SF home). Chapel Hill 27516 (Elkin Hills, Deal 3): limited comp data found — 101 Standing Rock Rd sold Dec 2025 at $326/SF (luxury, 6,586 SF) and 586 Middleton Place at $245/SF (entry, 1,913 SF) in same ZIP; direct Elkin Hills new construction comps unavailable and should be independently verified before any offer.
The two Chapel Hill deals demonstrate a tale of two markets within the same city: Greenwood (27514) commands best $/SF in the Triangle with a motivated seller — ~22 months on market and a $25k price cut — on a cleared 1.2-acre corner lot with all utilities already at the property line. Holly Springs rounds out the batch with a large-acreage ETJ parcel where city sewer runs to the property perimeter, and the nearby 0 Buckhorn Duncan Rd (similar profile) just went under contract (July 2026), validating buyer appetite. Recommended next steps: (1) Submit offer on 636 Christopher Rd at $360-$375k and order survey + title; (2) Call Holly Springs Planning to confirm 0 Old Airport Rd lot yield and sewer connection path before committing capital.