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Deal Scout · Opportunity #1
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GREAT · 21.1% MARGIN $1M–$5M project

#1 · 636 Christopher Rd, Chapel Hill, NC 27514

1.20 acres · Greenwood neighborhood · Chapel Hill 27514 · MLS 10063322
List price$375,000 (reduced from $400,000; ~22 months on market — motivated seller)
Acreage1.20 acres
MLS10063322 (Coldwell Banker Advantage, Linda Martin 919-XXX-XXXX)
ZoningChapel Hill residential (27514 Greenwood area; confirm R-1 single-family)
UtilitiesCity sewer and water accessible; electricity, cable available
StrategyBuild 3,200 SF premium home; sell or owner-occupy in Chapel Hill's most prestigious neighborhood
Out-of-pocket cash$304,601 (equity $243,525 + land closing $7,500 + loan closing $10,959 + carry $42,617)
Financed$730,575 construction loan (75% of $974,100 project)
Modeled3,200 SF at $130/SF builder cost (premium finish); $450/SF ARV ($1,440,000); 14-month build
Project cost
$1.04M
Gross revenue
$1,440,000
Net profit
+$304,024
Margin
21.1%
Max offer (20%)
$390,100
Pro Forma
LineAmount
Gross revenue — sale price ($450/SF × 3,200 SF; ARV comps Greenwood neighborhood)$1,440,000
Land acquisition + closing (~2%)($382,500)
Construction — builder cost (3,200 SF × $130 premium finish level)($416,000)
Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%)($104,000)
Site development / infrastructure — public sewer/water connection (incl. 20% margin)($37,500)
Contingency (10% of construction, AT COST — typically returned to investor if unused)($41,600)
Construction loan closing + carry (10% APR on draws, 14-month build)($53,576)
Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket($100,800)
NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR~$304,024 · 21.1% margin · 99.8% cash-on-cash

ARV support: 753 Old Mill Rd (same Greenwood neighborhood, Chapel Hill 27514), 4,018 SF 2024-rebuilt home, actively listed at $1,950,000 ($485/SF) — using conservative $450/SF here (7% discount to active comp). Market context: Chapel Hill new construction median listing $1M+; Greenwood is Chapel Hill's premier established neighborhood, 2 miles to UNC campus. MAO $390,100 at $450/SF — ask $375,000 is $15,100 below MAO. At comp-level $480/SF, MAO rises to $455,000 and investor margin jumps to 28%.

Diligence Gates
GO: City sewer/water confirmed accessible; 1.20 acres supports premium single-family; same-neighborhood listing comp at $485/SF; lot cleared and ready; ~22 months on market signals motivation. VERIFY: Chapel Hill zoning confirms single-family allowed and FAR/setbacks for 1.20-ac lot; exact sewer connection cost and distance to tap; survey and title search for easements; confirm no deed restrictions or historic district overlay; 753 Old Mill Rd listing — call agent for any pending offers (establishes market before building). STOP: Deed restrictions prohibiting new construction; floodplain or wetlands (lot appears elevated per listing — "relatively high elevation"); environmental contamination.
Verdict

GREAT buy at $375,000 in Chapel Hill's premier Greenwood neighborhood — same street as a 2024-rebuilt comp listing at $1,950,000. Build 3,200 SF at premium finish ($130/SF builder cost): investor nets +$304,024 (21.1% margin, ~100% cash-on-cash) with $304,601 out of pocket. MAO is $390,100 at $450/SF — ask of $375,000 is $15,100 below MAO, giving cushion even at the conservative comp. If the nearby listing closes at or near $485/SF, returns jump to +$471,000 (28% margin). Two years on market with a $25k price cut = motivated seller. This is also a compelling build-own site for someone wanting a custom home in Chapel Hill at below-replacement cost. Recommended: offer at $360-375k, parallel survey and title work.

Deal Scout · 2026-09-25 Home On LLC · NC GC L-103184Confidential — Home On LLC