This run screened ~50 active land and development listings across Wake Forest, Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay-Varina, Cary, Morrisville, Raleigh inside-the-beltline, Durham, Chapel Hill/Hillsborough, Pittsboro, and Johnston County. No client-specific property requests were pending. The two cleared deals are both entitlement plays — one a small flag lot in Apex with public sewer and a Mix-Use future land-use designation, and one a 6.7-acre commercial-positioned site in Fuquay-Varina flanked by a $70M industrial park and an incoming Target-anchored retail center. The straightforward residential subdivision math is tight across most of the Triangle right now: Apex land averages ~$184K/acre, Holly Springs ~$163K/acre, and with builder-grade new construction priced to investors at ~$139/SF all-in (incl. Home On's 20% intro margin), the spread to current $/SF market prices ($232–$241) leaves very little room for 20%+ investor margin once land, site work, and carry are added. The cleaner path to real returns this cycle is entitlement (rezone, upzone, or reposition before the spade hits dirt) and premium custom-build product ($280–$330+/SF) where the spread opens up.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5828 Old Smithfield Rd (access at 5814), Apex, NC 27539 · Entitlement play — buy RR-zoned flag lot with Mix-Use future designation + public sewer; pursue commercial/MU rezoning and resell entitled land. Single-build fallback if rezoning fails. Under $250K project | $165,000 | +$355,500 | 56% | $66,384 | GOOD |
| 2 | 219 Dickens Rd, Fuquay-Varina, NC 27526 · Commercial entitlement — buy residential-zoned 6.7 ac parcel abutting new $70M industrial park and upcoming Target-anchored retail center; rezone commercial/mixed-use and resell or develop. $1M–$5M project | $1,920,000 | +$1,735,140 | 40% | $2,779,555 | GOOD |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5911 Family Farm Rd, Morrisville, NC 27560 · Strategy B (new build) — 2.10 acres VLDR, teardown existing home, build 1–2 new homes. Math does not clear; Morrisville market down 10.7% YoY. $1M–$5M project | $995,000 | -$961,167 | -98.7% | $53,733 | PASS |
These were taken through a full pro forma and failed. They are kept so the reasoning is auditable, and so the same parcel is not re-worked next week.
Sold comp data sourced from Blue Orchid Realty (Apex Aug 2026: 142 closings, median $609,995, median $240/SF; Holly Springs Aug 2026: 62 closings, median $581,250, median $233/SF) and Resideline (Apex 6-month through Sep 2026: 704 closings, median $595,000, median $241/SF, middle 50% $217–$266/SF). Fuquay-Varina: median listing $466K, ~$198/SF (June 2026). Morrisville: median $547K, down 10.7% YoY through May 2026. NOTE: Commercial/mixed-use land resale values cited for the two entitlement deals are ESTIMATES based on general Apex and Fuquay-Varina commercial land market ranges ($8–25/SF depending on use); no hard MLS-recorded commercial land comps were found in this scan — Home On must conduct direct broker/appraiser validation before any offer based on the entitlement upside.
The two cleared opportunities share a common profile: residential-zoned land already in the path of commercial or mixed-use growth, with public utilities in place, priced below its highest-and-best use. The Apex flag lot (Deal 1) is the lower-capital entry: $165K buys public sewer, a Mix-Use future-land-use stamp from the town comp plan, and a foothold in the 27539 corridor where new construction clears $240–$265/SF. The Fuquay-Varina site (Deal 2) is the larger, higher-conviction play: a $70M industrial park just opened across Dickens Road, a Target-anchored center is under development, and WakeMed Medical Park anchors demand — the rezoning case writes itself. Recommended next step: for Deal 1, confirm Apex planning staff's informal read on a MU rezoning petition before offering; for Deal 2, order a Phase I and pull the Wake County GIS parcel record to confirm exact acreage and current zoning classification, then engage a commercial broker for a comparable land analysis.