| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — 2 new homes × 2,200 SF × $241/SF (Morrisville median) | $1,060,400 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2%) | ($1,014,900) |
| Construction — builder cost (2 × 2,200 SF × $111 builder grade) | ($489,600) |
| Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%) | ($122,400) |
| Site development / infrastructure (2 lots, incl. 20% margin) | ($243,750) |
| Contingency (10% of construction, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | ($48,840) |
| Construction loan closing + carry (10% APR on draws, 10-month build) | ($82,429) |
| Selling costs (~7%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket | ($74,228) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR | ~($961,167) · PASS — deeply negative at $995K land cost · MAO for break-even: $53,733 |
Morrisville sold comps: median $547,000, $241/SF through May 2026 (Redfin), but market down 10.7% YoY and median days-on-market rising to 56 days (vs 37 days prior year). Two new homes at 2,200 SF × $241/SF = $530,200 each = $1,060,400 total. MAO for 20% investor margin at these comps: $53,733 for the land. Property is listed at $995,000 — 18.5× the MAO. PASS: land priced as if Morrisville will appreciate significantly, but the market is currently declining.
Morrisville has compelling location fundamentals (RTP, RDU, I-540 access), but the market is showing real weakness: -10.7% YoY median price, rising days on market, and a VLDR zoning that caps density on these 2.10 acres. At $995K asking, the land cost exceeds the total ARV of both new homes even before construction — a loss of ~$961K on the pro forma. The MAO for 20% investor margin is $53,733; list price is $995,000. PASS firmly unless seller accepts an offer below $100K (unlikely). Recommend monitoring for a significant price reduction or watching for a rezoning to denser residential use that changes the density equation.