No client requests were pending this run. Two investor-grade land plays cleared the bar from a ~45-property scan across Wake, Durham, and adjacent counties. Deal 1 is a freshly listed 7.46-acre Durham parcel already approved for 32–37 townhomes in the heart of the Beazer Homes Leesville corridor — the numbers favor buying the entitled land and reselling to a national builder rather than building. Deal 2 is a 37-acre Wake Forest assemblage with confirmed public sewer that just took a 15% price cut after 18 months on market — a motivated seller on rare large-acreage land in a $700K+ new-construction market. One Durham 8-townhome parcel (7403 Leesville Rd, MLS 10188672) was fully modeled and grades PASS — active Beazer comps just down the road put the MAO for land at negative $330K, making the $449,900 ask deeply unworkable.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1028 Lynn Rd, Durham, NC 27703 · Entitlement flip — buy approved 35-townhome land, sell to national builder $1M–$5M project | $900,000 | +$457,125 | 29% | $1,028,000 | GOOD |
| 2 | 4505 Mitchell Mill Rd (Watkins Pond), Wake Forest, NC 27587 · Buy 37-acre public-sewer parcel → subdivide → build 25 new homes $15M–$20M project | $275,000 | +$1,513,306 | 8.4% | $0 | GOOD |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7403 Leesville Rd, Durham, NC 27703 · 8 townhomes approved — PASS: land priced $450K above MAO $1M–$5M project | $449,900 | -$413,837 | -15% | -$330,332 | PASS |
These were taken through a full pro forma and failed. They are kept so the reasoning is auditable, and so the same parcel is not re-worked next week.
Wake Forest new construction: median listing $709K; median closed (all ages) $455K–$500K; market $/SF $195–$204 overall; new construction commands a meaningful premium. Durham new construction townhomes (Leesville/Brier Creek corridor): Beazer Homes Townes on Leesville (active, 2026) lists 3BR/3BA at $326K–$357K for 1,614–1,664 SF (~$209–$215/SF). Townes at Brier Creek Crossing (2015 resale stock): $390K median sale (Sep 2025), $226/SF, 1,507–1,923 SF. Durham county overall: $221/SF median, down 8.3% YoY. National builders typically pay $40–55K per entitled, ready-to-build townhome lot in the Leesville/Brier Creek corridor based on active community pricing.
Both deals share the same thesis: an extraordinarily low land-cost-per-lot is the primary engine of investor return in a market where 20% builder margin and 7% selling costs compress net margin percentages. The Durham entitlement play (1028 Lynn Rd) is the quicker, lower-risk trade — buy approved land at $25,714/lot and sell to Beazer, DR Horton, or Ryan at $40–50K/lot for a projected 20–36% margin and 73–159% CoC in about 12 months with no construction risk. The Wake Forest subdivision (Mitchell Mill Rd) is a longer 36-month build play where $275K buys 37 public-sewer acres in a $720K ARV market, generating ~$1.5M net profit (8.4% margin, 30% CoC). First action on both: call the listing agents today to confirm zoning classification and public sewer service area before submitting an LOI.