| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Gross revenue — entitled land sale (35 lots × $45,000/lot) | $1,575,000 |
| Land acquisition + closing (~2%) | ($918,000) |
| Entitlement verification — surveys, site plan review, permit confirmation (at cost, no margin) | ($75,000) |
| Home On builder margin (20% intro rate; standard 30%) | N/A — entitlement flip; construction performed by purchasing builder |
| Site development / infrastructure (incl. 20% margin) | N/A — buyer (national builder) performs post-acquisition |
| Contingency (10% of construction, AT COST — typically returned if unused) | N/A |
| Bridge loan closing (1.5% × $675K) + carry (10% APR × $675K × 12 months) | ($77,625) |
| Advisory / transaction fee (~3%) — paid at sale closing, not out-of-pocket | ($47,250) |
| NET PROFIT TO INVESTOR | ~$457,125 · 29% margin · 116% cash-on-cash |
Entitled lot comps: Beazer Homes Townes on Leesville (same road, active 2026) — Beazer is the end buyer analog, selling 3BR/3BA at $326K–$357K for 1,614–1,664 SF. National builders typically back into $40–55K/lot for entitled, construction-ready townhome lots in this corridor (15–20% of projected sale price for land). Conservative exit: $40K/lot × 35 = $1,400,000 → net profit $287,375 (21% margin, 73% CoC). Upside: $50K/lot × 35 = $1,750,000 → net profit $627,125 (36% margin, 158% CoC). MAO reverse-solved at 20% target margin and $45K/lot exit: ~$1,028,000 — current ask of $900,000 is $128,000 below MAO.
At $900K for 7.46 acres approved for 35 townhomes ($25,714/lot), this is a compelling entitlement flip in Durham's most active townhome corridor. Primary play: buy, verify approvals, market to Beazer/DR Horton/Ryan at $40–50K/lot — net profit $287K–$627K on ~$396K out-of-pocket (73–158% CoC, 21–36% margin) in approximately 12 months, with no construction risk. Secondary build play: if national-builder bids disappoint, build 35 townhomes targeting $420K+ ARV — the build only pencils above $420K/unit (current Beazer comps are $326K–$357K, so this is not the base case today). Recommend: LOI at $875K with 30-day DD period. Confirm sewer and approval stage before going hard on deposit.