Sep 30 scan of Triangle-area land and infill listings across Wake, Orange, and Chatham counties. Top find: a fresh 3.63-acre wooded lot in Orange County near historic Hillsborough (14 days on market, $260k asking) — at $260k it sits $38k below the MAO for a 2-lot/2-custom-home scenario that returns 21% investor margin with ~99% cash-on-cash, supported by Forrest Creek Estates comps at $359-$456/SF. The deal turns on whether a second perc test clears the parcel for a second lot — that is the one phone call that determines the grade. Wake Forest also surfaced a brand-new 2-lot city infill listing (public sewer confirmed, GR5 zoning, 9 DOM) that is a clean builder play if downtown comps push above $310/SF. Also noted: three new septic-approved rural lots near Wake Forest at $150k each (2.5-3.85 ac, 4-BR permits, stormwater plans, power installed) listed this month — no confirmed addresses obtained; flag for direct MLS lookup. No client requests pending this run.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lot 1 Orange Grove Street, Hillsborough, NC 27278 · Subdivide 3.63 ac → 2 lots; build 2 custom homes (2,800 SF each) $1M–$5M project | $260,000 | +$412,592 | 21.1% | $297,763 | GOOD |
| 2 | 620 & 626 Brewer Ave, Wake Forest, NC 27587 · Build 2 urban infill homes (1,800 SF each) on 2 platted city lots — public sewer confirmed $500K–$1M project | $150,000 | +$85,514 | 8.8% | $46,624 | MARGINAL |
Project cost is the whole job — land, carry, build and financing, everything except selling. Click any property for its full deep-dive. Figures are model outputs on best-effort public listing data — re-verify each listing is active and clear the go/no-go gates before acting.
| # | Property · Strategy & project cost | List | Net | Margin | Max Offer | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0 White Cedar Run, Wake Forest, NC 27587 · Rural subdivision (est. 8-10 lots, well + septic) — well/septic costs kill margins at current market $/SF $5M–$10M project | $625,000 | +$405,466 | 6.5% | N/A at $280/SF; ~$786k at $330/SF (unconfirmed comps) | PASS |
These were taken through a full pro forma and failed. They are kept so the reasoning is auditable, and so the same parcel is not re-worked next week.
Hillsborough (27278) comps: Forrest Creek Estates custom new construction 2026 — 3,200 SF at $1,150,000 ($359/SF), 4,446 SF at $1,635,000 ($368/SF), 2,990 SF at $1,250,000 ($418/SF), 3,012 SF at $1,375,000 ($456/SF); mid-range custom 420 W Corbin St $975,000/3,087 SF ($316/SF); market-wide average $262/SF (Sep 2026 Realtytrac/Redfin). Wake Forest (27587) comps: new construction avg $243/SF (June 2026 Resideline); Heritage neighborhood $216/SF (Mar 2026); downtown examples $241/SF (E Perry Ave new construction 1,660 SF/$400k). Holly Springs: median sold $237/SF, new construction listing median $873k (Aug 2026 Blue Orchid Realty/Resideline). Sources: Carusohomes.com MLS listings, Redfin, Realtytrac, Resideline market reports, Houzeo listing data.
Hillsborough is the standout market this run: a 3.63-acre R1 parcel at $260k asking, one perc test in hand, and nearby luxury custom comps at $359-$456/SF — the 2-home subdivision scenario clears 21% investor margin and nearly 100% cash-on-cash return. The single most important next step is to order the second soil/perc evaluation and confirm Orange County minimum lot size (R1, unincorporated) before closing. Wake Forest's Brewer Ave is a well-located fresh listing with confirmed public sewer and is worth watching for a price cut into the $90-$100k range that would unlock solid investor returns at current market rates; at $150k asking it is MARGINAL but has genuine owner-builder appeal. No new subdivision plays with public sewer in Apex or Holly Springs cleared the screen at attractive prices this cycle; will revisit next scan.